9/28/2023 0 Comments Nba statbook 2017The control data (passes per 100 compared to both wins and offensive rating) seems to corroborate that good teams don’t necessarily pass more often (the r-squared score on the wins chart is effectively zero, showing virtually no correlation between the two). But the question is not “Does X make a team win?” so much as “Do winning teams do X?”, which is to say “Do winning teams make more quality passes/a higher percentage of quality passes/more passes in general?” Data Wins are the ultimate measure of efficacy in sports and thus the best measuring stick for statistics. ![]() To visualize the data in the most digestible way, the charts contained in the data section are quality passes per 100 possessions, quality pass percentage and passes per 100 graphed against wins and offensive rating. The quality passes number was then laid against the number of passes each team threw to get a quotient number of “Quality Pass Percentage” (QP%)-how often passes made lead to a bucket. ![]() With that data, I created a metric called “Quality Passes” (QP), which are passes that lead to points, by adding assists and secondary assists per 100 possessions. To normalize the numbers (and to make them comparable between teams and seasons), I calculated against each team’s pace to determine assists, points, passes, assists and secondary assists per 100 possessions. It features some straightforward statistics like assists, offensive rating, wins, pace and more, and adds to that passes and secondary assists. Using the numbers provided by NBA.com (obtained with the aid of those SportVu cameras), I compiled a database that contained stats from the 2013-14 to 2016-17 regular seasons (four years). Since then, statisticians have acquired a deluge of data pertaining to player movement, including the number of passes thrown, with the intent of increasing the analytical understanding of the game. MethodologyĪlthough the assist has been tracked as far back at the 1946-47 season in the Basketball Association of America, the ability to track the number of passes (and stats like secondary assists, or passes that lead to assists) is a relatively new addition to the game, made possible by the installation of SportVu cameras in NBA arenas during the 2013-14 season. Moving the ball a lot in a possession isn’t necessarily going to amount to a better attack, but the higher the assist or secondary assist rate, the greater the scoring potency. My hypothesis is good teams will have a higher percentage and number of passes “for profit,” but not necessarily a higher raw number of passes. ![]() Rather, asking the right questions about ball movement is important: Do good teams pass the ball more? Or are they more productive with the passes they do make? Saying ball movement is a critical component to elite offense is hardly revolutionary, especially in the space-and-pace era where passing has become a premium skill for players at all positions. That’s an elementary science fair-level logical progression, but we do know watching the ball hum around the perimeter and find the open man is basketball in its most intoxicating form. If ball movement means good offense, then it follows that passing to teammates is the best way to achieve that. That’s Basketball 101 (well, maybe 201, after you master terminology). The open shot, almost regardless of where you get it, is the best shot in the game, and crisp passing creates these uncontested attempts. With the rock zipping around, all five players on the floor became threats to score in open space. Teams like the ‘86 Boston Celtics and the ‘14 San Antonio Spurs, both of whom hoisted the Larry O’Brien Trophy at season’s end, stand out as units that moved the ball so well that their offensive attack was elevated to an elite level. Tantalizing dime-droppers like Magic Johnson and Jason Williams even made passing cool. Setting up other players with scoring opportunities is a critical part of a smooth offense, and some players like Rajon Rondo and John Stockton made a living on assisting. Youth-league coaches nationwide have told players the ball moves faster than opposing players since time immemorial, and the best way to break down a good defense is to pass crisply and quickly. ![]() Since James Naismith first nailed a peach basket to the wall of a gym in Springfield, Massachusetts during the winter of 1891, passing has been an integral part of basketball.
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